Quantitative Capital Management · Johannesburg

Data to
alpha. With
machine precision.

Conjecture Capital transforms immense market data into investable intelligence — for the sole purpose of optimising risk-adjusted returns for discerning investors.

Begin Conversation Our Platform
92%
Nominal Return PSITD
Scroll
Aegis Engine
FlowBridge Africa
Sharpe Ratio 2.1
Quantitative Alpha
Risk-First Architecture
No Leverage
Min R1,000,000
Smart Investing 4U
Aegis Engine
FlowBridge Africa
Sharpe Ratio 2.1
Quantitative Alpha
Risk-First Architecture
No Leverage
Min R1,000,000
Smart Investing 4U
92.62%
Nominal Return PSITD
May '25 — Jan '26
2.1
Sharpe Ratio
Live trading period
12.2%
Max Drawdown
No leverage deployed
50M+
Capacity Estimate (ZAR)
Before material edge decay

Edge found in
the data.
Not the noise.

We seek to heighten returns through machine learning-informed, sustainably optimised performance from actively traded financial instruments — continually benchmarked against hedge fund and mutual fund returns, with the explicit target to outperform.

Our edge is systematic, not discretionary. Every decision is driven by probabilistic signal generation, statistical validation, and strict downside controls — not instinct, timing, or favourable market windows.

01
Data-First Decision Making
Every signal, position, and exit is derived from quantitative evidence — not opinion. We let the data lead and the model execute with discipline.
02
Capital Preservation First
Maximum 1% of account per trade, 2% total exposure at any time. Drawdown controls and kill-switches protect capital before growth is pursued.
03
Systematic Robustness
Our returns span volatility, consolidation, and regime shifts — not one favourable window. Repeatability of edge is the foundation, not the exception.
04
Full Transparency
Daily P&L, model change logs, and post-trade analysis. Every decision is logged with rationale and confidence score for investor-facing reproducibility.

Two production-ready
trading systems.

I
Product 01 · Live
Aegis Engine
ML-Driven Stock Trading System

A fully operational, production-grade quantitative trading platform deploying capital in live stock markets. Built on a proprietary machine learning architecture — trained on market microstructure data — with institutional-grade risk controls, full audit trails, and daily performance reporting. Currently generating returns on founder capital with a demonstrated track record since inception.

II
Product 02 · In Development
FlowBridge Africa
Cross-Border Settlement Infrastructure

A next-generation payment and liquidity platform targeting underserved African cross-border trade corridors. Designed to compress settlement times, reduce capital lock-up, and open institutional-grade FX access to the SME market. Built compliance-native for SARB, FSCA, and AML/KYC requirements from the ground up.

92.62%
Nominal Returns · May 2025 — January 2026

Proprietary capital grew from R165,000 to over R300,000 — nearly 100% — in six months without leverage. The model performed through volatility, consolidation, and regime shifts, attributing growth to systematic execution and probabilistic edge rather than timing or market momentum.

Had the strategy been deployed on R5 million at inception, R4.63 million in nominal returns would have been generated across the same period. We are now opening access to qualified investors ahead of institutional capacity constraints.

Prototype results achieved on proprietary founder capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For qualified investors only.

Nominal Return PSITD92.62%
Sharpe Ratio2.1
Max Drawdown12.2%
Annualised Volatility18 – 21%
LeverageNone
Max Exposure per Trade1% · 2% total
Capacity (before edge decay)R30 – R50M
SA Hedge Fund Median 202415.07%
"

If edge disappears, we don't trade. That discipline is what protects capital long-term.

— Conjecture Capital, Investment Doctrine

Built by people who
understand both worlds.

C
Caden Dobson
Chief Developer & Founder

Holds two BSc degrees in Computer Science, with professional experience spanning DevOps engineering and data science in commercially focused environments. Designed, deployed, and monitored production systems at scale — including API infrastructure, automated pipelines, and high-availability platforms.

Transitioned into data science focused on large-scale ML model development for pattern recognition, pricing optimisation, and revenue intelligence. Now applies the same rigour to financial markets — quantitative strategy research, signal generation, risk modelling, and full-stack trading system architecture.

BSc Computer Science ×2 DevOps Engineering Data Science Quant Finance
M
Malerato Goba
Chief Finance Officer

Chartered Accountant (CA(SA)) with an International Executive MBA. Over 16 years of post-articles corporate and commercial finance experience, including 8 years supporting C-Suite executives. Previously headed group commercial finance at the JSE, providing strategic support to the group CFO and CEO's office for financial results reporting to markets and shareholders.

Prior role in the CFO's office at Old Mutual Insurance. Deep competency in capital allocation, investment optimisation, advanced valuations, FSCA compliance, and cross-border deal structuring across financial services, energy, transportation, and FMCG sectors.

CA(SA) Int'l Executive MBA JSE · Old Mutual Capital Markets
Investor Access

Put your capital
to work.

Conjecture Capital accepts a select number of investor mandates. We trade your capital systematically — with the same discipline, risk controls, and reporting standards applied to our own. Minimum investment of R1,000,000. Introductions by application only.

Apply to Invest Review Performance
Minimum Investment
R1,000,000
Liquidity
Quarterly
Reporting
Daily P&L
Mandate
Discretionary